FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.1 – 268.57

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

572 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 137.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.2 ±9.8

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 64Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 104.29Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 172.81Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.8 ±9.8

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 115.26Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 89.31Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 64Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 115, 7419, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 115, 7419, 254

Auto

61.5 18%

Teleop

197.7 58%

Endgame

81.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1868, 7137, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1868, 7137, 6418

Auto

68.4 25%

Teleop

129.9 48%

Endgame

70.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.1pts

Blue projected score268.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.5
Score range: 198–412
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 796 vs event baseline 392.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.2Season APEX601.8

61.5Auto68.4

197.7Teleop129.9

81.6Endgame70.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	101
teleop	283	84
endgame	206	34
foul	0	5
total	572	224

Result

Final score

572 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 137.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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