FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 120

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.61 – 691.34

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

315 – 760

Prediction correct · off by 76.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.4 ±9.8

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 19.06Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 38.78Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 172.77Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 860.7 ±9.8

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 377.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 118.58Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 195.46Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5419, 4135, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5419, 4135, 2813

Auto

35.7 16%

Teleop

116.4 52%

Endgame

72.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 254, 3970, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

691.3 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 254, 3970, 841

Auto

119.8 18%

Teleop

375.0 55%

Endgame

188.8 28%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.96 · Blue 3.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score230.6pts

Blue projected score691.3pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -460.7
Score range: 165–757
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1075 vs event baseline 363.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.4Season APEX860.7

35.7Auto119.8

116.4Teleop375

72.4Endgame188.8

115Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	134
teleop	167	392
endgame	101	214
foul	0	20
total	315	760

Result

Final score

315 – 760

Prediction correct · off by 76.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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