Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
493.61 – 417.43
72%28%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
410 – 274
Prediction correct · off by 113.5 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 832.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 165.43Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 104Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 224.18Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 743.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 98.57Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 165.43Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 153.43Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1967, 3256, 1323
79
/ 100 compatProjected
493.6 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1967, 3256, 1323
Auto
104.0 21%
Teleop
273.4 56%
Endgame
114.3 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 45%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8033, 5026, 3501
71
/ 100 compatProjected
417.4 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8033, 5026, 3501
Auto
79.4 19%
Teleop
240.3 58%
Endgame
96.3 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 45%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.65
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score493.6pts
Blue projected score417.4pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 70%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 42%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 76.2
- Score range
- 346–565
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
832.5Season APEX743.7
104Auto79.4
273.4Teleop240.3
114.3Endgame96.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 107 | 23 |
| teleop | 213 | 165 |
| endgame | 85 | 81 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 410 | 274 |
Result
Final score
410 – 274
Prediction correct · off by 113.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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