FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 119

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

346.5 – 547.76

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

328 – 556

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.6 ±9.8

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 111.93Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 185.32Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 49.25Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.2 ±8.7

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 210.4Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 163.96Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 173.4Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9400, 1868, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9400, 1868, 2204

Auto

85.8 25%

Teleop

187.6 56%

Endgame

64.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4698, 846, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

547.8 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4698, 846, 2073

Auto

108.9 20%

Teleop

272.9 51%

Endgame

157.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.21 · Blue 3.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.5pts

Blue projected score547.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -201.3
Score range: 282–613
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 884 vs event baseline 363.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.6Season APEX794.2

85.8Auto108.9

187.6Teleop272.9

64.4Endgame157.1

64Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	107
teleop	124	263
endgame	106	186
foul	0	0
total	328	556

Result

Final score

328 – 556

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.