FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

322.91 – 412.37

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

365 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 598 ±9.8

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 162.86Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 107.32Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 52.73Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 609.5 ±10.4

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 138.8Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 138.95Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 134.62Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 114, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 604, 114, 766

Auto

63.1 20%

Teleop

170.2 54%

Endgame

82.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7419, 1671, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.4 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7419, 1671, 3257

Auto

79.8 19%

Teleop

243.5 58%

Endgame

95.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.6 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score322.9pts

Blue projected score412.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 53%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.5
Score range: 258–477
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 770 vs event baseline 363.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

598Season APEX609.5

63.1Auto79.8

170.2Teleop243.5

82.9Endgame95.3

92Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	61
teleop	207	211
endgame	71	128
foul	0	5
total	365	405

Result

Final score

365 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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