Qualification · Qualification 116
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
249.11 – 285.67
39%61%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
361 – 479
Prediction correct · off by 152.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 505.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 157.17Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 108.58Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -16.64Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 639.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 106.84Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 59.6Rank 29Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 119.23Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3501, 5104, 4990
51
/ 100 compatProjected
249.1 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3501, 5104, 4990
Auto
31.7 13%
Teleop
125.0 51%
Endgame
89.7 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5507, 1072, 3256
56
/ 100 compatProjected
285.7 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5507, 1072, 3256
Auto
75.4 27%
Teleop
116.8 42%
Endgame
86.8 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 2.4
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score249.1pts
Blue projected score285.7pts
Red win probability39%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 71%
Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 45%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -36.6
- Score range
- 184–351
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
505.4Season APEX639.6
31.7Auto75.4
125Teleop116.8
89.7Endgame86.8
102Consistency69
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 54 | 88 |
| teleop | 206 | 313 |
| endgame | 101 | 78 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 361 | 479 |
Result
Final score
361 – 479
Prediction correct · off by 152.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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