FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.47 – 284.32

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

386 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 740.7 ±8.7

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 159.33Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 205.06Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 39.08Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.7 ±9.8

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 22.56Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 62.5Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 199.26Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 972, 6036, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 972, 6036, 6665

Auto

58.5 15%

Teleop

216.9 56%

Endgame

115.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 5817, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6814, 5817, 581

Auto

61.0 22%

Teleop

128.3 47%

Endgame

82.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score403.5pts

Blue projected score284.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.2
Score range: 219–468
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 363.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

740.7Season APEX577.7

58.5Auto61

216.9Teleop128.3

115Endgame82.5

102Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	82
teleop	240	98
endgame	44	122
foul	5	0
total	386	302

Result

Final score

386 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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