FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 114

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

270.9 – 401.76

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.9 ±9.8

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 30.35Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 188.24Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 52.31Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.9 ±9.8

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 116.54Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 72.22Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 213Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7137, 5026, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7137, 5026, 6305

Auto

83.7 31%

Teleop

140.3 52%

Endgame

47.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2135, 701, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2135, 701, 8

Auto

48.8 12%

Teleop

227.2 57%

Endgame

124.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score270.9pts

Blue projected score401.8pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.9
Score range: 205–468
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 364.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.9Season APEX551.9

83.7Auto48.8

140.3Teleop227.2

47.1Endgame124.5

63Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	66
teleop	44	163
endgame	53	48
foul	15	0
total	186	277

Result

Final score

186 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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