FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 112

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

429.07 – 464.92

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

296 – 571

Prediction correct · off by 119.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 625 ±9.8

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 60.02Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 264.95Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 104.1Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 820.1 ±9.3

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 88.85Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 251.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 124.74Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6662, 3045, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6662, 3045, 670

Auto

87.6 21%

Teleop

223.5 53%

Endgame

107.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 840, 9470, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 840, 9470, 971

Auto

82.7 18%

Teleop

246.0 54%

Endgame

125.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score429.1pts

Blue projected score464.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.9
Score range: 363–531
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 867 vs event baseline 364.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

625Season APEX820.1

87.6Auto82.7

223.5Teleop246

107.2Endgame125.4

63Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	92
teleop	139	319
endgame	124	130
foul	5	30
total	296	571

Result

Final score

296 – 571

Prediction correct · off by 119.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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