FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 111

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

420.65 – 456.76

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 584

Prediction correct · off by 138.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.7 ±9.8

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 109.57Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 237.67Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 73.41Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 755 ±9.8

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 89.97Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 305.76Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 61.03Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7667, 5940, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7667, 5940, 649

Auto

73.7 18%

Teleop

207.6 50%

Endgame

130.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6418, 1323, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6418, 1323, 6962

Auto

106.8 24%

Teleop

247.1 55%

Endgame

98.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.87 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score420.7pts

Blue projected score456.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.1
Score range: 355–523
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 855 vs event baseline 364.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.7Season APEX755

73.7Auto106.8

207.6Teleop247.1

130.6Endgame98.4

36Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	107
teleop	190	366
endgame	14	111
foul	0	0
total	271	584

Result

Final score

271 – 584

Prediction correct · off by 138.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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