FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 110

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

499.36 – 279.62

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

631 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 97.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 832.4 ±9.3

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 166.78Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 184.35Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 148.23Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.9 ±9.8

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 202.9Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 41.62Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 35.1Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2813, 841, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

499.4 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2813, 841, 604

Auto

70.4 14%

Teleop

281.8 56%

Endgame

146.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4698, 2204, 253

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4698, 2204, 253

Auto

80.3 29%

Teleop

147.2 53%

Endgame

51.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.11 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score499.4pts

Blue projected score279.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 219.7
Score range: 215–564
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 974 vs event baseline 363.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

832.4Season APEX500.9

70.4Auto80.3

281.8Teleop147.2

146.7Endgame51.1

99Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	71
teleop	365	161
endgame	112	101
foul	15	10
total	631	343

Result

Final score

631 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 97.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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