FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

580.86 – 323.72

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

693 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 135.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1007.9 ±9.3

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 164.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 182Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 234.57Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.1 ±10.4

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 73.14Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 164.29Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 86.29Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9470, 1671, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

580.9 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9470, 1671, 3045

Auto

105.1 18%

Teleop

334.6 58%

Endgame

138.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2204, 5104, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2204, 5104, 4135

Auto

65.7 21%

Teleop

167.1 53%

Endgame

85.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.2 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score580.9pts

Blue projected score323.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 55%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 257.1
Score range: 253–652
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 858 vs event baseline 393.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1007.9Season APEX368.1

105.1Auto65.7

334.6Teleop167.1

138.3Endgame85.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	19
teleop	420	101
endgame	171	45
foul	0	0
total	693	165

Result

Final score

693 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 135.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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