FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 107

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

634.5 – 343.31

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

581 – 479

Prediction correct · off by 94.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 729.3 ±9.3

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 78.47Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 171.46Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 384.57Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.7 ±9.8

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 123.02Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 43.51Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 176.78Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 701, 846, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

634.5 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 701, 846, 254

Auto

104.6 17%

Teleop

358.0 57%

Endgame

162.9 26%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3257, 766, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3257, 766, 5026

Auto

86.3 25%

Teleop

186.4 54%

Endgame

74.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.1 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score634.5pts

Blue projected score343.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 291.2
Score range: 278–700
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1060 vs event baseline 360.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

729.3Season APEX601.7

104.6Auto86.3

358Teleop186.4

162.9Endgame74

83Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	137	147
teleop	248	251
endgame	191	81
foul	5	0
total	581	479

Result

Final score

581 – 479

Prediction correct · off by 94.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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