FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 106

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.55 – 224.66

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.4 ±9.8

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 146.84Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 142.62Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 28.09Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±10.4

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 60.35Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 56.14Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 108.17Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8048, 6238, 7137

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8048, 6238, 7137

Auto

54.2 17%

Teleop

163.3 51%

Endgame

103.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5817, 6305, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5817, 6305, 5507

Auto

60.7 28%

Teleop

80.4 38%

Endgame

72.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.6 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score317.6pts

Blue projected score224.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.9
Score range: 160–383
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 361.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.4Season APEX462.9

54.2Auto60.7

163.3Teleop80.4

103Endgame72.2

138Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	44
teleop	189	107
endgame	86	71
foul	0	0
total	359	222

Result

Final score

359 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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