FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 105

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.56 – 213.62

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.5 ±9.8

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 123.25Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 72.2Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 60.11Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.9 ±10.4

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 88.82Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -15.59Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 140.39Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 971, 192, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 971, 192, 1967

Auto

16.9 7%

Teleop

133.0 53%

Endgame

102.1 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 840, 4990, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 840, 4990, 7419

Auto

46.1 22%

Teleop

100.8 48%

Endgame

64.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.6pts

Blue projected score213.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.9
Score range: 149–321
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 361.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537.5Season APEX382.9

16.9Auto46.1

133Teleop100.8

102.1Endgame64.5

115Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	47
teleop	197	143
endgame	59	41
foul	5	15
total	302	246

Result

Final score

302 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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