FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

248.24 – 287.9

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 236

Prediction missed · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.1 ±10.4

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 54.49Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 76.19Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 117.56Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560 ±10.4

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 67.13Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 81.4Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 139.37Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6662, 8033, 9400

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6662, 8033, 9400

Auto

52.4 23%

Teleop

126.3 56%

Endgame

48.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6962, 649, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6962, 649, 1671

Auto

49.7 17%

Teleop

187.7 65%

Endgame

49.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score248.2pts

Blue projected score287.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.7
Score range: 183–353
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 552 vs event baseline 362.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.1Season APEX560

52.4Auto49.7

126.3Teleop187.7

48.8Endgame49.8

97Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	43
teleop	172	83
endgame	70	110
foul	0	0
total	316	236

Result

Final score

316 – 236

Prediction missed · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.