FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

467.93 – 413.24

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

482 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 858.8 ±9.3

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 158.89Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 198.34Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 110.7Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.5 ±9.8

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 109.53Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 241.05Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 62.66Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3501, 1678, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3501, 1678, 7667

Auto

67.4 15%

Teleop

268.2 58%

Endgame

125.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 670, 5940, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 670, 5940, 8793

Auto

73.0 18%

Teleop

187.8 48%

Endgame

134.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score467.9pts

Blue projected score413.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.7
Score range: 348–533
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 887 vs event baseline 361.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

858.8Season APEX650.5

67.4Auto73

268.2Teleop187.8

125.9Endgame134.3

84Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	146
teleop	215	199
endgame	129	60
foul	20	0
total	482	405

Result

Final score

482 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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