FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

395.48 – 140.86

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 114.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.1 ±9.3

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 283.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 61.61Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 50.01Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.5 ±10.4

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 27.04Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 20.62Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 93.2Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 6665, 10339

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3045, 6665, 10339

Auto

60.4 15%

Teleop

212.9 54%

Endgame

123.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 6814, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5419, 6814, 6418

Auto

26.0 19%

Teleop

51.8 38%

Endgame

59.5 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score395.5pts

Blue projected score140.9pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 254.6
Score range: 75–461
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 363.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.1Season APEX333.5

60.4Auto26

212.9Teleop51.8

123.3Endgame59.5

66Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	52
teleop	96	66
endgame	30	12
foul	20	15
total	170	145

Result

Final score

170 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 114.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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