FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

779.12 – 334.27

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

766 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1100 ±8.7

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 251.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 305.34Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 221.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.7 ±9.8

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 166.62Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 128.78Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 38.87Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9470, 1323, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

779.1 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9470, 1323, 8

Auto

169.2 22%

Teleop

419.3 55%

Endgame

180.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 57%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 972, 2135, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 972, 2135, 5700

Auto

47.9 14%

Teleop

189.5 56%

Endgame

99.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 57%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.23 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score779.1pts

Blue projected score334.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 57%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 444.9
Score range: 269–844
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1032 vs event baseline 362.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1100Season APEX485.7

169.2Auto47.9

419.3Teleop189.5

180.8Endgame99.2

87Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	153	46
teleop	474	116
endgame	124	104
foul	15	0
total	766	266

Result

Final score

766 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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