FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.5 – 279.48

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.8 ±9.8

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 72.54Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 51.38Rank 29Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 200.58Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.8 ±9.8

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 175.67Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 52.22Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 51.59Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 701, 1072, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 701, 1072, 6036

Auto

61.1 20%

Teleop

168.8 54%

Endgame

82.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2813, 766, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2813, 766, 2204

Auto

53.8 19%

Teleop

157.1 56%

Endgame

70.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score324.5pts

Blue projected score279.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45
Score range: 214–390
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 565 vs event baseline 363.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.8Season APEX497.8

61.1Auto53.8

168.8Teleop157.1

82.6Endgame70.9

107Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	25
teleop	186	129
endgame	102	51
foul	5	0
total	360	205

Result

Final score

360 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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