FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

259.21 – 306.27

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.7 ±10.4

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 119.14Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 46.02Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 94.05Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.6 ±9.8

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 85.69Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 198.12Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 22.46Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5507, 4135, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5507, 4135, 670

Auto

41.5 17%

Teleop

135.3 54%

Endgame

71.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8033, 1868, 6814

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8033, 1868, 6814

Auto

89.7 30%

Teleop

115.1 39%

Endgame

92.5 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score259.2pts

Blue projected score306.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.1
Score range: 189–376
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 647 vs event baseline 387.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.7Season APEX531.6

41.5Auto89.7

135.3Teleop115.1

71.7Endgame92.5

117Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	123
teleop	132	147
endgame	101	75
foul	15	0
total	302	345

Result

Final score

302 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.