FIRST California Northern State Championship

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

782.03 – 551.4

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

552 – 527

Prediction correct · off by 127.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1132 ±8.7

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 130.8Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 292.32Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 358.91Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 970.5 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 59.45Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 214.7Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 277.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6238, 1323, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

782 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6238, 1323, 254

Auto

180.5 24%

Teleop

407.2 53%

Endgame

178.5 23%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

551.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6665, 1678, 9470

Auto

117.6 22%

Teleop

297.6 55%

Endgame

128.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.13 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score782pts

Blue projected score551.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 55%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 230.6
Score range: 481–852
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1079 vs event baseline 386.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1132Season APEX970.5

180.5Auto117.6

407.2Teleop297.6

178.5Endgame128.6

70Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	169	109
teleop	257	269
endgame	126	144
foul	0	5
total	552	527

Result

Final score

552 – 527

Prediction correct · off by 127.2 pts

Match videos

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