FIRST California Northern State Championship

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

818.65 – 538.97

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

627 – 644

Prediction missed · off by 148.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1132 ±8.7

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 143.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 303.96Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 371.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 970.5 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 55.7Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 210.38Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 272.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6238, 1323, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

818.7 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6238, 1323, 254

Auto

176.0 22%

Teleop

440.5 55%

Endgame

186.2 23%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

539 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6665, 1678, 9470

Auto

121.1 23%

Teleop

291.3 55%

Endgame

116.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.18 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score818.7pts

Blue projected score539pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 55%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 279.7
Score range: 470–888
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1271 vs event baseline 382.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1132Season APEX970.5

176Auto121.1

440.5Teleop291.3

186.2Endgame116.9

58Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	199	100
teleop	309	315
endgame	119	229
foul	0	0
total	627	644

Result

Final score

627 – 644

Prediction missed · off by 148.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.