Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.11 – 125.96

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 45 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.4 ±11.7

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 39.15Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 75.02Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 75.94Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.6 ±11.7

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 28.74Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 67.36Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 29.86Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3759, 5137, 4

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3759, 5137, 4

Auto

33.9 19%

Teleop

108.8 60%

Endgame

39.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1661, 2710, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1661, 2710, 4415

Auto

22.0 19%

Teleop

62.0 53%

Endgame

33.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.1pts

Blue projected score126pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.2
Score range: 101–215
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 141.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.4Season APEX307.6

33.9Auto22

108.8Teleop62

39.9Endgame33.1

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	31
teleop	17	61
endgame	10	31
foul	30	0
total	103	123

Result

Final score

103 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 45 pts

Match videos

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