Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.48 – 202.03

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

266 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.3 ±9.3

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 19.77Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 128.86Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 96.85Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±9.8

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 37.86Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 80.81Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 83.36Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4999, 687, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 687, 4201

Auto

44.4 18%

Teleop

125.9 52%

Endgame

73.3 30%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6220, 294, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6220, 294, 4123

Auto

23.2 12%

Teleop

128.4 65%

Endgame

45.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score245.5pts

Blue projected score202pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.4
Score range: 177–270
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.3Season APEX545.7

44.4Auto23.2

125.9Teleop128.4

73.3Endgame45.9

17Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	45
teleop	131	148
endgame	88	71
foul	15	5
total	266	269

Result

Final score

266 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 43.7 pts

Match videos

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