Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
110.93 – 192.31
27%73%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
115 – 261
Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.7 ±12.2
Season APEX 135Event APEX 38.61Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 38.43Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 33.89Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.5 ±10.5
Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 31.58Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 84.75Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 75.98Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3408, 7230, 980
56
/ 100 compatProjected
110.9 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 3408, 7230, 980
Auto
25.1 23%
Teleop
57.4 53%
Endgame
26.2 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4470, 2584, 4322
79
/ 100 compatProjected
192.3 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4470, 2584, 4322
Auto
41.5 22%
Teleop
103.4 55%
Endgame
44.5 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.96
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score110.9pts
Blue projected score192.3pts
Red win probability27%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -81.4
- Score range
- 86–217
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
311.7Season APEX399.5
25.1Auto41.5
57.4Teleop103.4
26.2Endgame44.5
0Consistency11
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 34 |
| teleop | 45 | 100 |
| endgame | 28 | 62 |
| foul | 20 | 65 |
| total | 115 | 261 |
Result
Final score
115 – 261
Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts
Match videos
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