Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
179.88 – 112.33
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
290 – 106
Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 29.87Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 74.36Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 75.65Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 34.27Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 33.19Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 44.87Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6220, 294, 4123
69
/ 100 compatProjected
179.9 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6220, 294, 4123
Auto
21.2 12%
Teleop
117.0 68%
Endgame
34.3 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1197, 1836, 5089
56
/ 100 compatProjected
112.3 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 1197, 1836, 5089
Auto
31.4 28%
Teleop
57.9 51%
Endgame
24.3 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.12
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score179.9pts
Blue projected score112.3pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 67.6
- Score range
- 87–205
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-17
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
545.7Season APEX247.2
21.2Auto31.4
117Teleop57.9
34.3Endgame24.3
11Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 32 |
| teleop | 167 | 53 |
| endgame | 92 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 290 | 106 |
Result
Final score
290 – 106
Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts
Match videos
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