Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.91 – 122.36

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.3 ±9.3

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 21.14Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 130.68Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 97.09Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.6 ±11.7

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 28.27Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 64.3Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 29.79Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4999, 687, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 687, 4201

Auto

52.3 21%

Teleop

124.5 51%

Endgame

69.3 28%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1661, 2710, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1661, 2710, 4415

Auto

15.8 14%

Teleop

65.0 56%

Endgame

34.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score248.9pts

Blue projected score122.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.6
Score range: 98–273
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 135.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.3Season APEX307.6

52.3Auto15.8

124.5Teleop65

69.3Endgame34.3

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	31
teleop	125	71
endgame	88	33
foul	5	15
total	236	150

Result

Final score

236 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Match videos

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