Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.43 – 177.71

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

198 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.5 ±10.5

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 30.81Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 86.29Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 76.33Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.4 ±11.7

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 70.77Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 72.19Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 34.75Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4470, 2584, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4470, 2584, 4322

Auto

37.6 20%

Teleop

106.6 56%

Endgame

45.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5137, 4, 3759

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5137, 4, 3759

Auto

32.2 19%

Teleop

99.0 59%

Endgame

35.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.4pts

Blue projected score177.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 154–217
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 134.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.5Season APEX331.4

37.6Auto32.2

106.6Teleop99

45.5Endgame35.6

9Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	48
teleop	97	121
endgame	47	33
foul	0	5
total	198	207

Result

Final score

198 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 16.9 pts

Match videos

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