Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.26 – 254.4

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±9.8

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 41.31Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 84.04Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 87.91Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.3 ±9.3

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 23.24Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 130.82Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 100.34Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6220, 294, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6220, 294, 4123

Auto

28.5 14%

Teleop

129.2 62%

Endgame

49.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4999, 687, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 687, 4201

Auto

47.9 20%

Teleop

128.6 53%

Endgame

64.5 27%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.3pts

Blue projected score254.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.1
Score range: 187–280
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.7Season APEX578.3

28.5Auto47.9

129.2Teleop128.6

49.1Endgame64.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	54
teleop	63	155
endgame	35	48
foul	10	10
total	152	267

Result

Final score

152 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Match videos

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