Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.73 – 125.33

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.3 ±9.3

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 26.9Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 135.01Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 104.82Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.6 ±11.7

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 28.22Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 67.39Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 29.72Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4999, 687, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 687, 4201

Auto

49.1 19%

Teleop

134.2 52%

Endgame

72.6 28%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1661, 2710, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1661, 2710, 4415

Auto

22.7 19%

Teleop

62.1 53%

Endgame

33.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score266.7pts

Blue projected score125.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.4
Score range: 99–293
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.3Season APEX307.6

49.1Auto22.7

134.2Teleop62.1

72.6Endgame33.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	27
teleop	92	35
endgame	12	13
foul	30	0
total	174	75

Result

Final score

174 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 pts

Match videos

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