Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

455.24 – 213.34

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

478 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 745.3 ±9.3

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 252.42Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 22.4Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 180.42Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±9.8

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 41.25Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 84.45Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 87.64Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3476, 7042, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

455.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3476, 7042, 9408

Auto

76.9 17%

Teleop

263.8 59%

Endgame

104.2 23%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6220, 294, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6220, 294, 4123

Auto

26.8 13%

Teleop

131.4 63%

Endgame

50.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score455.2pts

Blue projected score213.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.9
Score range: 187–481
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 689 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

745.3Season APEX545.7

76.9Auto26.8

263.8Teleop131.4

104.2Endgame50.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	39
teleop	285	115
endgame	82	42
foul	0	15
total	478	211

Result

Final score

478 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Match videos

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