Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.42 – 203

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.3 ±9.3

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 21.39Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 129.4Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 98.63Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.5 ±10.5

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 34.73Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 87.93Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 80.34Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4999, 687, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 687, 4201

Auto

42.1 17%

Teleop

126.9 52%

Endgame

76.1 31%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4470, 2584, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

203 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4470, 2584, 4322

Auto

39.8 21%

Teleop

102.3 54%

Endgame

46.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score249.4pts

Blue projected score203pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.4
Score range: 178–274
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 141.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.3Season APEX399.5

42.1Auto39.8

126.9Teleop102.3

76.1Endgame46.9

12Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	49
teleop	174	120
endgame	54	38
foul	45	0
total	360	207

Result

Final score

360 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Match videos

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