Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
126.86 – 39.9
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
168 – 58
Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.7 ±11.2
Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 62.86Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 39.14Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 24.86Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 8.38Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 60Event APEX 6.66Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 24.86Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 687, 6220, 4964
82
/ 100 compatProjected
126.9 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 687, 6220, 4964
Auto
22.7 21%
Teleop
60.0 57%
Endgame
23.2 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8898, 1515, 4201
40
/ 100 compatProjected
39.9 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 8898, 1515, 4201
Auto
3.1 8%
Teleop
24.9 62%
Endgame
12.0 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.84
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score126.9pts
Blue projected score39.9pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 87
- Score range
- 23–144
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
407.7Season APEX334.4
22.7Auto3.1
60Teleop24.9
23.2Endgame12
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 13 |
| teleop | 121 | 23 |
| endgame | 32 | 22 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 168 | 58 |
Result
Final score
168 – 58
Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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