Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.37 – 144.49

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 101.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219 ±12.2

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 25.19Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 25.58Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 36.6Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.9 ±11.7

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 76.6Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX -1.78Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 69.67Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3759, 1197, 5089

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3759, 1197, 5089

Auto

28.2 32%

Teleop

41.8 47%

Endgame

19.4 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2584, 6000, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2584, 6000, 4123

Auto

27.1 18%

Teleop

96.5 65%

Endgame

24.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.4pts

Blue projected score144.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.1
Score range: 63–168
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219Season APEX339.9

28.2Auto27.1

41.8Teleop96.5

19.4Endgame24.2

0Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	48
teleop	89	114
endgame	59	53
foul	5	30
total	189	245

Result

Final score

189 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 101.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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