Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.52 – 183.41

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215 ±12.8

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 3.65Rank 17Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 95

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 22.68Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 4.19Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.4 ±12.4

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 26.42Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 24.62Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 132.37Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11096, 7042, 867

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11096, 7042, 867

Auto

1.2 3%

Teleop

28.2 77%

Endgame

7.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4501, 9696, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4501, 9696, 687

Auto

39.1 21%

Teleop

100.3 54%

Endgame

45.7 25%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.5pts

Blue projected score183.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.9
Score range: 7–207
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215Season APEX323.4

1.2Auto39.1

28.2Teleop100.3

7.4Endgame45.7

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	44
teleop	11	72
endgame	24	43
foul	0	0
total	50	159

Result

Final score

50 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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