Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 123.32

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 142.5 ±13.9

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX -2.77Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX -18.54Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -13.29Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.1 ±12.4

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 2.64Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 24.82Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 95.86Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5857, 9505, 8898

/ 100 compat

Projected

-34.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5857, 9505, 8898

Auto

-2.2 6%

Teleop

-31.5 91%

Endgame

-0.9 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5669, 1661, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5669, 1661, 4201

Auto

38.4 33%

Teleop

41.8 36%

Endgame

35.8 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-34.6pts

Blue projected score123.3pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.3
Score range: -24–147
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

142.5Season APEX396.1

-2.2Auto38.4

-31.5Teleop41.8

-0.9Endgame35.8

18Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	20
teleop	12	81
endgame	13	75
foul	0	0
total	33	176

Result

Final score

33 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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