Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.5 – 53.74

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±10.4

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 65.84Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 71.82Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 18.84Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±11.6

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 29.98Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX -2.9Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 26.66Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2710, 5137, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2710, 5137, 4999

Auto

19.7 13%

Teleop

99.6 66%

Endgame

31.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4470, 1515, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4470, 1515, 4415

Auto

21.3 47%

Teleop

11.8 26%

Endgame

12.0 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.5pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.8
Score range: 30–181
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 132.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.6Season APEX238.7

19.7Auto21.3

99.6Teleop11.8

31.5Endgame12

7Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	81	34
endgame	24	24
foul	45	0
total	167	79

Result

Final score

167 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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