Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.49 – 281.13

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.6 ±13.9

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 5.76Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 46.21Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 0.52Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.5 ±12.4

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 1.6Rank 17Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 95

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 255.73Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 23.8Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 867, 1159, 6000

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 867, 1159, 6000

Auto

6.9 13%

Teleop

33.7 63%

Endgame

12.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11096, 3476, 5835

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11096, 3476, 5835

Auto

51.2 19%

Teleop

160.7 59%

Endgame

59.4 22%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.42 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.5pts

Blue projected score281.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -228.6
Score range: 29–304
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.6Season APEX449.5

6.9Auto51.2

33.7Teleop160.7

12.7Endgame59.4

69Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	62
teleop	14	228
endgame	5	14
foul	0	5
total	35	309

Result

Final score

35 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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