Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.01 – 47.8

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348 ±15.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 83.18Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1759Potatoes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 26.02Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX -20.19Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±13.3

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 22.11Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 32.96Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX -7.27Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 1759, 9505

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 1759, 9505

Auto

16.9 19%

Teleop

54.7 63%

Endgame

15.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9696, 5089, 5857

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9696, 5089, 5857

Auto

16.8 33%

Teleop

19.3 38%

Endgame

14.6 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89pts

Blue projected score47.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.2
Score range: 25–112
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 130.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348Season APEX188.1

16.9Auto16.8

54.7Teleop19.3

15.2Endgame14.6

14Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	10
teleop	61	60
endgame	23	22
foul	0	0
total	116	92

Result

Final score

116 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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