Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.04 – 60.06

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.9 ±12.2

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 2.12Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 70.9Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 39.02Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232 ±12.2

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 26.4Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 3.36Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 30.3Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1515, 2710, 1836

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1515, 2710, 1836

Auto

11.1 10%

Teleop

91.8 80%

Endgame

12.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7042, 5669, 4470

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7042, 5669, 4470

Auto

30.3 50%

Teleop

26.6 44%

Endgame

3.7 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score60.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 36–136
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.9Season APEX232

11.1Auto30.3

91.8Teleop26.6

12Endgame3.7

59Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	18
teleop	42	7
endgame	6	27
foul	0	15
total	75	67

Result

Final score

75 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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