Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.69 – 112.24

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.2 ±11.7

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 145.31Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 1.41Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 44.97Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.4 ±12.8

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 21.05Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 61.87Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 29.32Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 687, 8898, 980

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 687, 8898, 980

Auto

35.3 19%

Teleop

103.5 54%

Endgame

51.5 27%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3759, 4123, 7230

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3759, 4123, 7230

Auto

34.1 30%

Teleop

61.4 54%

Endgame

18.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.7pts

Blue projected score112.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.5
Score range: 88–216
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.2Season APEX251.4

35.3Auto34.1

103.5Teleop61.4

51.5Endgame18.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	4	123
endgame	22	42
foul	0	5
total	48	203

Result

Final score

48 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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