Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238 – 175.3

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 44.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.9 ±11.7

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 29.3Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 180.26Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 28.44Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.3 ±9.8

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 90.6Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 22.38Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 62.32Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5124, 9408, 1661

/ 100 compat

Projected

238 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5124, 9408, 1661

Auto

43.9 20%

Teleop

123.6 56%

Endgame

53.5 24%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 1197, 4

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4201, 1197, 4

Auto

33.2 18%

Teleop

99.3 54%

Endgame

51.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238pts

Blue projected score175.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.7
Score range: 152–261
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.9Season APEX500.3

43.9Auto33.2

123.6Teleop99.3

53.5Endgame51.1

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	60
teleop	61	99
endgame	68	40
foul	20	30
total	202	229

Result

Final score

202 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 44.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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