Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.58 – 95.91

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.9 ±12.8

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 2.48Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 68.94Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 2.16Rank 17Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.6 ±11.2

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX -6.21Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 23.06Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 79.06Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6000, 2710, 11096

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6000, 2710, 11096

Auto

4.2 5%

Teleop

64.9 83%

Endgame

9.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5857, 7042, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5857, 7042, 4322

Auto

12.9 14%

Teleop

46.5 49%

Endgame

35.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.6pts

Blue projected score95.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 50–120
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 130.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.9Season APEX404.6

4.2Auto12.9

64.9Teleop46.5

9Endgame35.8

92Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	16
teleop	54	75
endgame	9	24
foul	10	0
total	75	115

Result

Final score

75 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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