Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.96 – 65.73

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.9 ±11.7

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 35.29Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 32.47Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 257.2Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.4 ±16.5

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 27.48Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 6.62Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1759Potatoes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 31.63Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7230, 4470, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

325 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7230, 4470, 3476

Auto

79.4 25%

Teleop

175.2 55%

Endgame

61.9 20%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9696, 867, 1759

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9696, 867, 1759

Auto

16.8 24%

Teleop

49.9 71%

Endgame

3.3 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score325pts

Blue projected score65.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 259.2
Score range: 43–348
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.9Season APEX146.4

79.4Auto16.8

175.2Teleop49.9

61.9Endgame3.3

43Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	7
teleop	168	15
endgame	44	12
foul	20	0
total	307	34

Result

Final score

307 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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