Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.38 – 210.28

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 73.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.4 ±11.7

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 56.27Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 16.08Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 57.03Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.4 ±11.7

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 11.67Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 172.97Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 25.64Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4, 3759, 5137

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4, 3759, 5137

Auto

18.5 14%

Teleop

78.4 61%

Endgame

31.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5835, 9408, 5089

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5835, 9408, 5089

Auto

46.3 23%

Teleop

119.2 58%

Endgame

39.7 19%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.4pts

Blue projected score210.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.9
Score range: 106–233
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.4Season APEX437.4

18.5Auto46.3

78.4Teleop119.2

31.9Endgame39.7

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	45
teleop	105	141
endgame	40	90
foul	0	20
total	190	296

Result

Final score

190 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 73.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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