Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.29 – 149.66

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.2 ±11.2

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 3.18Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 27.96Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 251.15Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.3 ±11.7

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX -11.2Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 71.94Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 88.92Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5857, 4415, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5857, 4415, 3476

Auto

58.2 21%

Teleop

147.2 54%

Endgame

65.3 24%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9505, 4, 2584

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9505, 4, 2584

Auto

30.2 20%

Teleop

88.4 60%

Endgame

29.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score282.3pts

Blue projected score149.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.6
Score range: 123–309
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.2Season APEX341.3

58.2Auto30.2

147.2Teleop88.4

65.3Endgame29

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	26
teleop	157	46
endgame	93	20
foul	20	0
total	329	92

Result

Final score

329 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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