Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

30.28 – 21.2

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.8 ±12.2

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 18.19Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 20.35Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX -8.26Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172 ±13.9

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 38.03Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 6.59Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX -23.42Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4501, 6220, 1515

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4501, 6220, 1515

Auto

5.9 30%

Teleop

9.1 47%

Endgame

4.4 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1836, 6904, 9505

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1836, 6904, 9505

Auto

18.9 100%

Teleop

4.9 32%

Endgame

-8.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.3pts

Blue projected score21.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.1
Score range: -2–53
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.8Season APEX172

5.9Auto18.9

9.1Teleop4.9

4.4Endgame-8.4

72Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	6
teleop	76	22
endgame	22	25
foul	5	0
total	118	53

Result

Final score

118 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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