Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.92 – 89.86

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.6 ±9.3

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 94.59Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 87.75Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 72.58Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.8 ±12.2

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 18.04Rank 26Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 37.41Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 34.41Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4201, 2584, 294

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4201, 2584, 294

Auto

52.8 21%

Teleop

144.1 56%

Endgame

59.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6072, 5124, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6072, 5124, 4415

Auto

15.6 22%

Teleop

20.2 28%

Endgame

35.6 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.9pts

Blue projected score89.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.1
Score range: 67–278
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 128.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.6Season APEX242.8

52.8Auto15.6

144.1Teleop20.2

59.6Endgame35.6

16Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	35
teleop	125	13
endgame	77	9
foul	0	5
total	224	62

Result

Final score

224 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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