Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.07 – 388.24

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.6 ±12.2

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 81.97Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 41.76Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 4.34Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 653.2 ±9.3

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 246.1Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 131.89Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 10.25Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2710, 4470, 5857

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2710, 4470, 5857

Auto

20.5 16%

Teleop

87.5 67%

Endgame

22.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3476, 687, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3476, 687, 1197

Auto

88.9 23%

Teleop

208.0 55%

Endgame

84.7 22%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.44 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.1pts

Blue projected score388.2pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -260.2
Score range: 105–411
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.6Season APEX653.2

20.5Auto88.9

87.5Teleop208

22.2Endgame84.7

0Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	66
teleop	32	300
endgame	5	124
foul	0	0
total	64	490

Result

Final score

64 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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